Hamilton Tiger-Cats Game #4

Visiting Team: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-2, T-2nd in the East division)

Home Team: Toronto Argonauts (1-3, T-2nd in the East division)

Date and Time: Friday, July 4th at 7:30 pm EDT

Game Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Where to Watch: In Canada, TSN In the US and International, CFL+

DraftKings Betting Line: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+2), Toronto Argonauts (-2), O/U 52.5 points

Every time the Hamilton Tiger-Cats play against the Toronto Argonauts, the outcome of the game is crucial for both teams due to the long-standing rivalry between the Ontario neighbors. The Tiger-Cats are coming to BMO Stadium looking to get their second straight win after upsetting the previously undefeated Montreal Alouettes.. Toronto is also looking to win its second game in a row after getting its first win of the 2025 season against the Ottawa Redblacks last week.

Not only is this week’s matchup between the Tiger-Cats and Argonauts a renewal of the Battle of the QEW, but it will also determine which of these two teams hangs onto at least a share of the 2nd place position in the East division.

Ultimately, the deciding factor in this game could affect the outcome before both teams hit the field, as the CFL Injury Report suggests that Hamilton should be feeling excellent. At the same time, the Argonauts continue to have significant injury issues. The Tiger-Cats come into this game with the least amount of injuries that they have had in several weeks, with only fullback Daniel Bell being out for this game. On the other hand, the Argonauts are dealing with significant injuries to some of their top playmakers, including quarterback Chad Kelly and running back Deonta McMahon.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats Depth Chart

Toronto Argonauts Depth Chart

Key to Victory #1: Establish the Run Game

While the stat sheet from last week only shows 60 rushing yards for Hamilton against the Alouettes, those yards are critical when it comes to winning football games in the CFL. Those 60 yards allowed the Tiger-Cats to out-rush the Alouettes, and with 20 rush attempts, Hamilton was able to control the flow of the game. When Hamilton can get their running game going, it helps them stay out of 2nd-and-long situations, which allows Bo Levi Mitchell to have better opportunities in the passing game. Against Toronto, the Tiger-Cats will need to continue committing to the run game, which should be easier with their top running back, Greg Bell, returning to the lineup.

Key to Victory #2: Protect Bo Levi Mitchell

Despite doing a better job of establishing their running game, the Tiger-Cats still struggled to protect Mitchell. Even in situations where Hamilton utilized maximum protection with seven players, Mitchell still found himself under fire. Arguably, the Alouettes have one of the best defensive fronts in the CFL, but the Argonauts have done their homework; they will bring pressure to disrupt the Tiger-Cats’ passing game. Two solutions are to provide better pass protection or build in more short throws for Mitchell to check down to, to increase his level of efficiency in the passing game. After reviewing the protection breakdown last week, it would be wise for Scott Milanovich to incorporate more short throws into their passing game.

Key to Victory #3: Create Explosive Scoring Plays

One game planning quirk that has been missing from the Tiger-Cats’ offensive game plan each week this season is a lack of innovative plays. While it is not a great plan to have a game plan dependent on trick plays, Hamilton needs some plays that can help set up easy touchdowns. Those could be play-action plays, but the timing of those calls is critical to get maximum effect. They could also add a trick play or two to use as they enter the red zone. This week, against the Argonauts, would be an excellent opportunity to install an explosive play that will allow them to take control of the game’s momentum and silence the predictably sparse Toronto crowd.

Key to Victory #4: Contain and Pressure the Argonauts QB

Defensively, the Tiger-Cats’ defensive front seven has improved significantly each week of this season so far. This week, it will be important for the Tiger-Cats’ defensive line to contain Argonauts quarterback Nick Arbuckle. When Arbuckle has to throw from the pocket, he tends to miss his target sporadically, but when he gets outside the pocket, his completion percentage climbs dramatically. Hamilton will need to not only pressure Arbuckle but also keep him in the pocket and prevent him from extending plays to find his receivers.

Key to Victory #5: Force Toronto to Turn the Ball Over

A huge difference-maker for both Toronto and Hamilton in their winning efforts was the ability to force turnovers and turn those into defensive touchdowns. Against the Redblacks, Toronto took a fumble that they recovered near their goal line and returned it for a defensive touchdown. In addition, the Argonauts returned a missed field goal for 120 yards for a touchdown. Likewise, the Tiger-Cats scored two defensive touchdowns last week with rookie linebacker Devin Veresuk returning an interception for a touchdown, and defensive end Julian Howsare recovering a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown. If the Tiger-Cats can find more ways to score defensive touchdowns, then their chances of winning increase exponentially. A defensive or special-teams touchdown will likely determine the outcome of this game.

Game Prediction:

Hamilton Tiger-Cats 28, Toronto Argonauts 24

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