The Montreal Alouettes will host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the East Semi-Final in a rematch of the 2023 Grey Cup. The teams met just last week in Winnipeg, which saw Montreal lose 10-19 in a game that saw Montreal rest starting quarterback Davis Alexander. Saturday will see Alexander get his first playoff start after setting the record for best win/loss record to start a CFL career by a quarterback at 10-0.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Saturday, November 1 / Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg, MB
Kickoff Time: 3:00 PM ET, 12:00 PM PT
Channel: CTV, TSN, RDS (Canada), CFL+ (USA, Global)
Odds (If you place bets, please do so responsibly in moderation):Â
Spread: Montreal -6.5 (-115), Winnipeg +6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Montreal -295, Winnipeg +235
Over/Under: 48.5 (Over -105, Under -105)
Montreal Alouettes (10-8): The Montreal Alouettes lost both of their meetings to Winnipeg this season, with the first being 13-26 and again last week, 10-19. The meeting in the East Semi-Final will be the first one with Davis Alexander in the game.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8): The Winnipeg Blue Bombers ended a rocky season on a positive note with a win at home to close out the regular season. The Bombers have won 10 games or more in each of the last 9 seasons.
With Winnipeg having placed 4th in the West, they will cross over to the East side of the playoff bracket, having a better record than Toronto’s 5-13 record.
Alouettes Keys to the Game
Stop the Run Early
Montreal will want to influence Winnipeg to go away from the run as they did in the Grey Cup last year. If Montreal can get a couple of run stops early and be fortunate enough to see Winnipeg move away from the run game that has been their foundation for success, then that could very likely lead to victory for Montreal.
Montreal will need a big game from their line and their versatile linebacking core of Darnell Sankey, Tyrice Beverette, and Najee Murray.
No Fly Zone
Montreal has been one of the best defenses against the pass over the last few years. This past season, Montreal had the fewest passing yards allowed at 4,625 and the third-lowest passer efficiency allowed at 93. Montreal will need another big game from its secondary to defend the nest. Both Kabion ento and Tyrice Beverette have 4 interceptions this season.
Zach Collaros has struggled at times in cold-weather games. Since 2019, he has played in 19 games that were under 10°C. Over that span, he completed 64.9% of his passes for 4,039 yards with 22 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. A statistical contrast from his touchdown ratio overall in the other 47 games in which he completed 69.6% of his passes for 10,815 yards and 71 touchdowns with 48 interceptions. While this is a clear trend of performances being worse in cold weather by Collaros, there are some outliers, such as his 301 yards and 4 touchdowns in the Western Final against Saskatchewan last year.
Keep it Safe in the Passing Game
Winnipeg has the 2nd-lowest passer efficiency allowed from its opponents at 90.8. Davis Alexander will want to ensure he is careful with his targets and does not take unneeded risks in his first playoff start.
Lean on Stevie Scott III
As good as Davis Alexander has been in his young CFL career, it’s important to remember that he does not have that much experience in games. It will be important for Montreal to get success often in pounding the rock to provide run support to keep the defense honest. Montreal will need a strong game from RB Stevie Scott III.
5 Alouettes to Watch
#97 DE Josh Archibald
Last week, Archibald had 5 tackles, including a sack. He was in on 3 shared run stops and had 2 pressures in the pass rush. With the recent injuries to Mustafa Johnson (out) and Lwal Uguak (game time decision), Archibald will be needed to step up this week.
#91 DE Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund
Adeyemi-Berglund had 2 tackles last week, officially including a solo run stop. He was also in on 2 shared run stops. In the pass rush, he had 5 total pressures. He had the 4th most sacks this past season with 11.
#2 DT Shaun Oakman
Oakman had 6 tackles last week, including a sack. Additionally, he had 3 solo run stops and was in on 3 shared run stops.
Update: The evening before gameday, the CFL announced the suspension of Shawn Oakman, and Montreal subsequently released him. This becomes an incredibly important game now for #98 DT Dylan Wynn, who has been a reliable run stopper. He has had 9 shared run stops and 1 solo run stop over the last 3 games.
CFL Suspends Montreal DT Shawn Oakman Indefinitely, Alouettes Cut Ties Immediately
#0 DE Shawn Lemon
Lemon will return to the lineup for his first game since week 14. This will be his first playoff game since 2023, which saw him record 3 sacks over 3 postseason games, including 1 in the Grey Cup. He has 103 sacks over 147 career CFL regular-season games.
#85 WR Tyler Snead
Snead was the most targeted receiver in the last game that Montreal started Davis Alexander in, catching 7 of his 9 targets for 114 yards.
5 Blue Bombers to Watch
#20 RB Brady Oliveira
Oliveira had over a thousand yards rushing for the 4th straight season. He rushed 201 times over 15 games for 1,163 yards (5.8 average) with 3 touchdowns. He also had his most productive season in receptions and receiving yards, catching 61 passes for 546 yards.
#88 WR Keric Wheatfall
Wheatfall has the 2nd most receiving yards on the team, having caught 42 passes for 655 yards and 4 touchdowns.
#5 DE Willie Jefferson
Jefferson has been a major part of Winnipeg’s success since joining the team in 2019. This season, he has 15 tackles, including 3 sacks. With Winnipeg hosting the Grey Cup, this will be a particularly meaningful game to him.
Cobb caught all 4 of his targets last week for 44 yards in his first start for Winnipeg.
#33 LB Tony Jones
Jones had the 2nd most tackles this past CFL season at 104. He had 3 sacks and 2 interceptions this season.. Last week, he had 2 tackles and an interception.
#DE James Vaughters
Vaugthers had 36 tackles and 6 sacks over his first season as a Bomber. He has 27 sacks over 74 CFL regular-season games.
Injury Report:
Depth Charts:
Score Prediction:
Montreal feels like a team that is playing a more complete game of football at this time. Winnipeg dressing only 1 running back is playing with fire and possibly indicating they did not learn anything from last year’s Grey Cup defeat when they abandoned the run. Zach Collaros has been inconsistent in the playoffs and or cold weather. With Montreal playing at home, I predict Montreal to emerge victorious 27-20.
