The BC Lions are coming off the bye week with a chance to clinch the playoffs as they host the Edmonton Elk. BC is riding a 4-game winning streak with the most recent being a 38-24 victory at home over the Calgary Stampeders. Edmonton is still looking for a playoff spot after winning its last 2 in crucial division games.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Friday, October 17 /BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Kickoff Time: 10:30 PM ET, 7:30 PM PT
Channel: TSN (Canada), CFL+ (USA, Global)
Odds (If you place bets, please do so responsibly in moderation):Â
Spread: B.C. -5.5 (-115), Edmonton +5.5 (-105)
Moneyline: B.C. -245, Edmonton +198
Over/Under: 56.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
B.C. Lions (9-7): The BC Lions are riding a 4-game win streak, and the offense is cooking. They have scored 155 points in this win streak, and the team seems to keep getting better. Currently, the Lions have averaged 428.5 yards of offence per game, which is the highest by a CFL team since Calgary in 2010. The defense has been tightening as well, with their opponents being held to 27 points for 4 games in a row.
If the Lions win this weekend and Winnipeg loses, then BC will clinch home-field advantage in the West Semi-Final.
Nathan Rourke has completed 77.4% of his passes over this win streak and now has a 71.2% career CFL completion rate, which is 2nd in CFL career completion percentage behind only Edmonton’s Cody Fajardo.
Edmonton Elks (7-9): The Elks are 6-3 in their last 9 games, rebounding from a 1-6 start. Edmonton must win to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Elks won last week 25-20 at home over Winnipeg, and in their previous game defeated Saskatchewan at home 27-25. It is the first time the Elks have won consecutive games during a homestead since weeks 1 and 2 of the 2019 season. This is great news for a club that set a North American pro sports record for consecutive at-home losses at 22 from 2019 until 2023. The Commonwealth Curse is broken, and the Elks are in the hunt for the playoffs. I declare the Commonwealth Curse, finally broken.
Lions’ Keys to the Game
Another Strong Game in the Pass Rush
Last week, it was an important game for the Lions to pass rush effectively in a fashion that did not allow Vernon Adams Jr. to use his legs and pick up yards on the ground. This week is no different, as the Lions are again playing a quarterback who can make some magic happen under pressure in Cody Fajardo. When Fajardo is on top of his game, making plays as a dual threat, it is too much on the defense’s plate, which is why I often refer to this Nevada product as the Big Fajita.
The Lions’ defensive line is looking NFL-caliber as new additions of Levi Bell and Bradlee Anae join the likes of Mathieu Betts and Jonah Tavai, and others who have recently come off injury, such as DTs Dewayne Hendrix and Tibo Debaillie. They have 10 sacks as a unit in the last 2 games.
Good Tackling on Outside Runs
Justin Rankin has broken off several long runs this season. It will be critical for BC’s secondary to make the tackle when Rankin is in the open field. The linebacking core of Josh Woods, Micah Awe, Deontai Williams, and Ben Hladik is composed of great tacklers. There are some DBs on the lighter side in BC’s secondary, and they might be needed to make a crucial tackle.
Avoid Turnovers
Last week, Rourke looked excellent except on a few critical plays in which he had a lapse in judgment and made turnover-worthy throws. His 3 interceptions last week were why the game had so much 4th quarter drama. It is great for entertainment, but it doesn’t help your likelihood of winning.
Dual Threat Ground Game Time?
James Butler is third in the league in rushing with 1,103 yards and has had a great season catching passes as well. Horvath has looked really good on his rushes for BC on his 19 carries for 223 yards (11.7 average) and 2 touchdowns. It might be worthwhile for BC to use both in the ground game more to change up the pace in the run game and also distribute the hits absorbed as we near the playoffs.
5 Lions to Watch
#99 DT Jonah Tavai
Last game, Tavai had 2 sacks and 2 additional pressures by my count. Over the last 2 games, he has 10 pressures past a blocker by my count. DT Tibo Debaillie also had a sack in the game and 4 additional pressures.
#90 DE Mathieu Betts
Betts leads the league in sacks at 14 and added another last game. He had 4 additional pressures past a blocker by my count last game. Levi Bell and Bradlee Anae were also effective pass rushers last game to keep an eye on moving forward.
#4 WR Keon Hatcher
Hatcher balled out last game for BC, catching 7 passes for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns with 5 missed tackles forced along the way. Jevon Cottoy also had a strong game, catching 7 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown.
#1 CB Garry Peters
Pets had 3 targets come his way last week, resulting in 0 completions and had 2 passes defended. He has allowed 1 catch his way for 7 yards over the last 2 games.
#26 CB Robert Carter Jr.
Carter had 2 interceptions and 3 tackles last week.
5 Elks to Watch
#7 QB Cody Fajardo
Fajardo has completed 243 of his 324 this season for 2,906 yards and 12 touchdowns with 3 interceptions. He has added 257 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. Fajardo is the 6-6 as a starter this season and a major factor in the Elks changing their stars this season.
#5 RB Justin Rankin
Rankin has scored a touchdown in each of his last 5 games. He leads the league in yards from scrimmage at 1,608. He has rushed 171 times for 976 yards (5.7 average) with 9 touchdowns and has added 50 receptions for 632 yards and 4 touchdowns.
#13 HB Kordell Jackson
Jackson has 77 tackles (6th in the league) and 9 pass knockdowns (4th in the league).
#84 WR Odieu Hilaire
Hilaire has played in 6 CFL games, amassing 22 receptions for 282 yards. Last week, he was the most targeted Elk, catching 5 of his 10 targets for 51 yards.
#11 Kaion Julien-Grant
Julien-Grant had dominant stretches playing with Fajardo in Montreal in 2023 and 2024 in seasons he was limited by injuries. This season, playing with Fajardo in a different jersey, he has 50 receptions for 736 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Injury Report:
Depth Charts:
Score Prediction:
I am predicting the Edmonton Elks to win because they have finally broken the Commonwealth Curse, led by Cody Fajardo. I am predicting one of the most entertaining games of football of the season, with Edmonton winning a close one, 34-30.
The logical side of me expects BC to win. However, I sense Edmonton will win due to the Commonwealth Curse being broken for Edmonton. This is a prediction based on superstitions and what I feel in the air. Can you feel it coming in the air (tomorrow) night?
