The Argos have owned BMO Field all year, but a banged-up Chad Kelly and a red-hot Nathan Rourke make this one a legitimate toss-up.
Game Details
- Matchup: Toronto Argonauts vs BC Lions
- When: Saturday, October 3 at 3:00 PM ET
- Where: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
- TV: TSN
- Stream: Watch live on CFL+
Odds
- Spread: BC Lions -2
- Moneyline: Toronto Argonauts +110, BC Lions -130
- Over/Under: 66
Toronto is a respectable 7-6-2 against the spread this year but has leaned heavily under, cashing the under nine times in 15 games. BC has gone the other way, going over eight times and sitting 6-7 ATS — a Lions team built to put points on the board fast.
Overview
This is as big as a Week 18 game gets outside of Montreal and Edmonton. The Argonauts (9-6) have won five of their last six, their lone hiccup a 24-28 loss to Saskatchewan, and they're riding a four-game win streak capped by last week's wild 30-28 escape in Winnipeg. The Lions (8-6) have been just as scorching, winning four of five and scoring at least 30 points in six straight games, including 45- and 48-point outbursts. Both clubs are jammed in behind Montreal and Edmonton in the East and West respectively, and a loss here stings either team's playoff positioning heading into the stretch run.
The head-to-head history favors Toronto in a big way. The Argos beat BC 26-12 back in Week 8, and they've won five straight meetings at BMO Field, where they're a perfect 4-0 this season. Toronto's defence has been the story of this winning streak, holding opponents to 23.3 points a game over the last six, and the Argos are 7-0 this year when they lead after the first quarter. But BC comes in with real juice — Nathan Rourke has thrown for 349.7 yards per game with 15 touchdowns over his last seven outings, and he's 2-2 against Toronto in his career, which tells you this group of Lions isn't intimidated by the venue or the opponent.
The swing factor is health at quarterback. Chad Kelly, the league's MOP front-runner by his own coach's estimation, is officially questionable with a right hand injury after being limited in practice all week, and the depth chart shows Paxton Delaurent elevated as insurance behind Nick Arbuckle and Tucker Horn. If Kelly can't go or isn't himself, that's a massive complication against a Lions defence that's allowed plenty of points but can get after the quarterback. If Kelly plays anywhere close to full strength, Toronto has the edge — he's 3-0 against BC for his career and sits 62 passing yards shy of becoming just the fifth Argonaut to crack 12,000 for a career.
Key Players
- Chad Kelly (Toronto Argonauts, QB) — Leads the league with 5,067 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, but practiced limited all week with a right hand issue and carries a questionable tag into kickoff.
- Nathan Rourke (BC Lions, QB) — Averaging 349.7 yards and 11.1 yards per attempt over his last seven games with 15 total touchdowns, and he's thrown for 3,851 yards on the season.
- Damonte Coxie (Toronto Argonauts, WR) — Sits at 1,260 yards and is on pace for 1,512, part of a Toronto receiving corps that's threatening to put four pass-catchers over 1,000 yards, a feat accomplished just four times in league history.
- Tyler Kahmann (Toronto Argonauts, WR) — Up to 982 yards on pace for 1,178, one of three Argos receivers chasing 1,000-yard seasons alongside Coxie and Dave Ungerer III.
- Bubba Bolden (Toronto Argonauts, DB) — Has piled up 21 defensive tackles over his last two games and anchors a Toronto defence that ranks second in red zone touchdown percentage allowed at 54.9 per cent.
- Zander Horvath (BC Lions, RB) — Leads BC backs with 751 yards and a league-best 16 rushing touchdowns, though he's been held to just 2.7 yards per carry over his last three games.
Keys to the Game
- Toronto needs clarity at quarterback early — if Kelly can't finish or isn't effective, the Argos need Nick Arbuckle or Paxton Delaurent to protect the ball against a BC defence that forces mistakes.
- Slow down Rourke before he gets rolling; BC owns the league's best red zone touchdown rate at 75 per cent, so Toronto's defence has to win on early downs and keep the Lions out of the end zone once they're in scoring range.
- Lean on the home-field dominance — Toronto is 4-0 at BMO Field this season and has won five straight over BC there, so controlling tempo and feeding the run game to protect whichever quarterback is under center matters.
Injury Report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Kelly | Toronto Argonauts | Questionable (Right Hand) |
| Desmond Bland | Toronto Argonauts | Available (Not Injury Related) |
Depth Chart
Toronto Argonauts starters by position, built from the team's official Week 18 depth chart. This is a projected look and may shift depending on Chad Kelly's hand.
| Position | Toronto Argonauts |
|---|---|
| QB | Chad Kelly (Questionable) / Nick Arbuckle / Tucker Horn / Paxton Delaurent |
| RB | Isaiah Smith / Sam Hicks |
| FB | Sebastian Parsalidis |
| WR (Boundary) | Damonte Coxie / Nolan Ulm |
| WR (Field) | Dave Ungerer III |
| SB | Makai Polk / Tyler Kahmann / Janarion Grant / Kevin Mital |
| LT | Desmond Bland |
| LG | Ryan Hunter |
| C | Peter Nicastro / Chris Kolankowski |
| RG | Dakoda Shepley / Frank Vreugdenhil |
| RT | Kendall Randolph |
| DE | Shawn Lemon / Da'Marcus Johnson, Gabriel Maisonneuve / Jonathan Kongbo |
| DT | DeWayne Hendrix / Sonae Toia, Ralph Holley / Paris Shand |
| LB | Brian Harelimana / Alex Teubner, Isaac Darkangelo / Jordan Herdman-Reed / Darius McKenzie, Derek Slywka / Adarius Pickett |
| S | Bubba Bolden |
| HB | James Ceasar, DaShaun Amos / Dathan Hickey |
| CB | Benjie Franklin, Ethan John / Louis-Philippe Gauthier |
| K/P | Lirim Hajrullahu (K) / James Burnip (P) |
Score Prediction
Toronto Argonauts 32 - BC Lions 34. This has shootout written all over it given both offences' recent scoring pace, but the uncertainty around Chad Kelly's hand tips the slimmest of margins to a Lions team that's been nearly unstoppable on offence for six straight weeks. Toronto's home-field mojo keeps it a one-score game to the final whistle.
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Who takes this one? Drop your prediction in the comments.