How big does a lead have to be before a CFL team can relax? Since 2016, teams have blown leads of 24 and 25 points, and Hamilton lost a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter of a Grey Cup.
Two of those comebacks set team records, while the third won Winnipeg a Grey Cup. Here is how each game unfolded, along with this season's Labour Day rally in Calgary, where Edmonton trailed by 18 points.
How Far Behind Is Too Far?
Poker puts an exact number on that question, at least for a single hand. With a poker odds calculator, anyone can enter both hands and the board to see who is ahead. A pair of fives still beats a pair of kings about 19 percent of the time.
Football is harder to measure, since the clock, the weather, and injuries all play a part. Still, all four teams below came back from a deficit that looked final.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats, 2016
Edmonton led Hamilton 31-6 early in the third quarter on July 23, 2016, with the reigning champions looking safe at Commonwealth Stadium. Hamilton answered with the game's final 31 points to win 37-31, the biggest comeback in team history.
Jeremiah Masoli led the rally with 23 straight completions, a new CFL record. The old mark of 22 belonged to Jason Maas, who was coaching Edmonton that night.
Montreal Alouettes, 2019
Some fans had left Percival Molson Stadium by halftime on September 21, 2019, with Montreal down 37-17 to Winnipeg. The Alouettes had trailed 34-10 in the second quarter and were still down 20 going into the fourth. Vernon Adams Jr. then threw three touchdown passes in the last 12 minutes.
The last one went to Jake Wieneke with six seconds left, for a 38-37 win and the biggest comeback in franchise history. Adams finished the night with 488 passing yards, 211 of them in the fourth quarter alone. Even so, the Blue Bombers won the Grey Cup that November, their first since 1990.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 2021
Winnipeg trailed 22-10 early in the final quarter of the 108th Grey Cup, which Hamilton hosted on December 12, 2021. Receiver Rasheed Bailey said head coach Mike O'Shea told the players at halftime, "We're going to take the wind in the fourth quarter."
Winnipeg scored 15 points in the quarter to lead 25-22, before a Hamilton field goal with four seconds left forced overtime. Zach Collaros opened the extra period with a 13-yard touchdown pass to Darvin Adams. Kyrie Wilson then clinched a second straight title by intercepting Jeremiah Masoli, who had led Hamilton's 2016 comeback.
Edmonton Elks, 2026
Edmonton trailed Calgary 25-7 at McMahon Stadium on Labour Day, after an interception and a fumble led to two Calgary touchdowns. Calgary still led 28-14 with just over 12 minutes left, but the Elks scored 24 unanswered points to win 38-28.
With about four minutes to go, Justin Rankin ran 50 yards for the touchdown that put Edmonton ahead for the first time. Quarterback Cody Fajardo said games like this make the team believe "no score is too big for us."
More Touchdowns on the Way
Comebacks like these need touchdowns, and the CFL is changing the field to produce more of them. Starting in 2027, the goalposts move to the back of the end zone and the field shrinks from 110 to 100 yards. The league projects 60 more touchdowns per season from moving the goalposts.
Before that, the 113th Grey Cup kicks off on November 15 at McMahon Stadium, where Edmonton came back from 25-7 down on Labour Day. Whichever team leads late that night will have recent history to worry about.