Chad Kelly owns Edmonton on the road, but the Elks have won four straight in this series and Commonwealth Stadium hasn't been kind lately.
Game Details
- Matchup: Toronto Argonauts at Edmonton Elks
- When: Saturday, August 15 at 3:00 PM ET
- Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
- TV: TSN
- Stream: Watch live on CFL+
Odds
- Spread: Edmonton Elks -3
- Moneyline: Toronto Argonauts +160, Edmonton Elks -192
- Over/Under: 62
Toronto is 4-4 against the spread this season with an even four overs and four unders. Edmonton is also 4-4 ATS, but the Elks have leaned under more often, going 4-5 on the total.
Overview
The Argonauts come into this one riding a two-game winning streak after surviving a wild 33-30 shootout with Calgary at BMO Field, a game where Chad Kelly threw four interceptions and still somehow delivered the win with a rookie running back scoring twice and a defense that got off the field when it mattered. It wasn't clean, but at 4-4 Toronto sits right in the thick of a crowded middle of the pack, and a road win over a West Division contender would be the kind of statement result this group has been chasing all year.
Edmonton, meanwhile, is stumbling at the wrong time. The Elks dropped their last two, including a 30-48 blowout loss in Montreal where head coach Mark Kilam and Cody Fajardo both admitted the Alouettes outplayed them everywhere. Over their last three games, Edmonton has allowed 36.7 points per contest, a number that should make Kelly and this Toronto passing attack salivate. Still, the Elks have won four straight in this head-to-head series, and Fajardo has owned Kelly's teams historically at a 5-7 career clip that undersells how tough Edmonton has been at home.
Toronto has the pass-rush trend on its side, racking up eight sacks over its last two games and sitting 4-1 this season when it records multiple sacks. If Jonathan Kongbo and company can get after Fajardo early, Toronto's defense can force the mistakes it needs. But this is also a game where Edmonton has been nearly automatic once it grabs control, sitting 6-0 when leading after three quarters. The edge here goes to Toronto's offense keeping pace, but Edmonton's late-game composure and the four-game series streak make this a coin-flip road test.
Key Players
- Chad Kelly (Toronto Argonauts, QB) — He's 2-0 against Edmonton for his career and has topped 300 yards in six of eight starts this season; he needs 330 yards Saturday to pass Tobin Rote for sixth on the Argos' all-time passing list.
- Cody Fajardo (Edmonton Elks, QB) — Leads the league in completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield (56.8 percent) and just became the 12th player in league history to reach 100 passing touchdowns and 50 rushing touchdowns for his career.
- Damonte Coxie (Toronto Argonauts, WR) — Coming off a season-high 161-yard game last week and now Toronto's clear top target with Makai Polk sidelined.
- Austin Mack (Edmonton Elks, WR) — Averaging 5.7 catches, 120 yards and a touchdown over his last three games, making him the engine of Edmonton's passing attack.
- Adarius Pickett (Toronto Argonauts, LB) — Leads the entire CFL with 59 defensive plays and is the anchor of a Toronto defense that has to slow down Justin Rankin and this Edmonton run game.
- Tyrell Ford (Edmonton Elks, DB) — Tied for the league lead with five interceptions, all coming in his last five games, which spells trouble for a Kelly-led offense that has thrown 13 picks on the season.
Keys to the Game
- Toronto's pass rush needs to show up again — the Argos are 4-1 this year when they get multiple sacks, and Kongbo has to find a way to disrupt Fajardo's rhythm early.
- Kelly has to protect the football against a Ford-led secondary that's been picking off everybody lately; four interceptions last week can't become a habit against a defense this opportunistic.
- Whoever leads after three quarters likely wins it — Edmonton is a perfect 6-0 when ahead heading into the fourth, so Toronto needs to avoid letting this one get away late.
Injury Report
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| John Haggerty (P) | Toronto Argonauts | Out — Hamstring |
| Ryan Hunter (OL) | Toronto Argonauts | Questionable — Knee |
| Brian Harelimana (LB) | Toronto Argonauts | Questionable — Hamstring |
| Ethan John (DB) | Toronto Argonauts | Out — Ankle |
| Makai Polk (WR) | Toronto Argonauts | Out — Foot |
| Robert Priester (DB) | Toronto Argonauts | Out — Achilles |
| Kendall Randolph (OL) | Toronto Argonauts | Out — Knee |
| Alex Teubner (DB) | Toronto Argonauts | Out — Hamstring |
Depth Chart
Toronto Argonauts starters by position, built from the team's official Week 11 depth chart. This is a projected chart and may shift before kickoff given the injury situation up front and at receiver.
| Position | Toronto Argonauts |
|---|---|
| QB | Chad Kelly (Nick Arbuckle, Tucker Horn) |
| RB | Samuel Hicks (Isaiah Smith) |
| FB | Jack Cassar (Sebastian Parsalidis) |
| WR | Damonte Coxie, Dave Ungerer III |
| SB | Tyler Kahmann, Kevin Mital, Jake Herslow, Janarion Grant |
| LT | Desmond Bland |
| LG | Ryan Hunter |
| C | Peter Nicastro (Chris Kolankowski) |
| RG | Dakoda Shepley (Frank Vreugdenhil) |
| RT | Brandon Kemp |
| DE | Da'Marcus Johnson (Shawn Lemon), Paris Shand (Jonathan Kongbo) |
| DT | DeWayne Hendrix / Sonae Toia, Ralph Holley |
| LB | Brian Harelimana / Jalen Rayam (Cameron Judge), Darius McKenzie / Isaac Darkangelo, Derek Slywka / Adarius Pickett |
| CB | Benjie Franklin, Louis-Philippe Gauthier / Tarvarus McFadden |
| S | Bubba Bolden |
| HB | James Ceasar, DaShaun Amos / Dathan Hickey |
| K/P | Brady Lidster, James Burnip |
| LS | Adam Guillemette |
Score Prediction
Toronto Argonauts 30 - Edmonton Elks 33. This one plays out like a track meet given both offenses' recent numbers, but Edmonton's home-field edge, its history of closing out games it leads late, and its four-game win streak in this series tip it in the Elks' favor by a field goal, exactly matching the spread.
CFL Standings | Full Schedule | League Leaders
Who takes this one? Drop your prediction in the comments.