The Montreal Alouettes will travel to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats in the Eastern Final after an exciting victory over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 38-24 in the Eastern Semi-Final. Montreal’s ground game exploded behind Stevie Scott III’s 133-yard 2-touchdown performance, while Davis Alexander threw for 384 yards in his first playoff start. Hamilton is dangerous in their own right after finishing the season 2nd in points per game at 29.2 and first in the East.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Saturday, November 8 / Hamilton Stadium, Hamilton, ON
Kickoff Time: 3:00 PM ET, 12:00 PM PT
Channel: CTV, TSN, RDS (Canada), CFL+ (USA, Global)
Odds (If you place bets, please do so responsibly in moderation):
Spread: Montreal -2.5 (-124), Hamilton +2.5 (+102)
Moneyline: Montreal -160, Hamilton +130
Over/Under: 52.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Montreal Alouettes (10-8): The Alouettes are coming off a statement win over Winnipeg, where their run game was extremely efficient and the defense forced key turnovers. Davis Alexander extended his undefeated streak as a starter to 12-0, the best start for a CFL quarterback. Montreal’s secondary, which has been one of the best in the league, will need to be at their best to stop Hamilton’s aerial threat as they face Bo Levi Mitchel, who was an East Division All-Star. Montreal will be without starting halfback Ciante Evans in their secondary, who is missing his second straight week due to injury.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (11-7): The Tiger-Cats clinched first in the East with a 12-6 record. Bo Levi Mitchell led the league in passing yards, completing 68.4% of his passes for 5,296 yards and 36 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. With so much attention on Davis Alexander for his record-setting 12-0 win-loss record to start his CFL career, BLM is poised to remind the league that he himself is a 2x Grey Cup winner, 2x Grey Cup MVP, and 2x CFL MOP. Bo also started out 12-1 as a CFL starter and was the fastest starting quarterback to 60 wins, doing so in just 72 games. With the talented cast around him of receivers such as Kenny Lawler, Kiondre Smith, and Tim White, we could very easily see a real shootout.
Alouettes Keys to the Game
More Smashmouth Football
Montreal had its best rushing game last week in recent memory, and I think they should continue to lean into it moving forward. Hamilton had the worst average yards per carry allowed at 5.7 this season. It was a great game from the offensive line, with every starter noticeably moving bodies at different times. This week could be more challenging as it will be unlikely that they will be facing 3-man defensive fronts the vast majority of the game on Saturday.
Lockdown Coverage
Montreal’s pass defense will need to be at its best in this contest. Bo Levi Mitchell is a killer with he tools to beat anyone, and he’s got a lot of weapons at his disposal. Montreal has a talented secondary with the likes of CBS Kabion Ento and Lorenzo Burns, HBs Wesley Sutton and Dionte Ruffin, and S Marc-Antoine Dequoy. They will all need to have a great game for Montreal to win.
No Turnovers
Last week, Montreal allowed Winnipeg back into the game quickly last week due to turnovers, despite having a 25-6 lead at the half. Winnipeg turned 3 offensive possessions into 3 touchdowns thanks to 2 turnovers early in the third quarter. Within 5 minutes, the game was 27-25 for Winnipeg.
Stop the Run and Encourage Hamilton to Abandon the Run
Last week, Montreal’s run defense was not often tested, but they played well when tested. They held Brady Oliveira to 38 yards on 8 carries in the East Semi-Final. They will once again be up against a 1,000-plus yard rusher in Greg Bell, who rushed 184 times this season for 1,038 yards (5.6 ypc) and 5 touchdowns over 15 games. Montreal allowed the third most rushing yards per carry in the regular season at 5.4 yards per rush.
If Montreal can get Hamilton to abandon the rush, it will be much easier to defend against a team that makes themselves 1-dimensional.
Get Pressure on Bo Levi Mitchell
Last week, Montreal had 3 pass rushers get at least 3 pressures past a blocker by my count from Geoffrey Cantin-Arku, Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund, and Shawn Lemon. Montreal will need its pass rush to be active. The Als would benefit from a big game from DE Lwal Uguak, who was playing through injury last week.
Alouettes to Watch
#8 RB Stevie Scott III
Stevie is coming off an 18-carry 133-yard (7.38 ypc) 2-touchdown performance. The most rushing yards in a postseason game since Andrew Harris put up 136 in the 2021 Western Final. By my count, he had 7 missed tackles forced. He also caught 3 passes for 29 yards. His ability to maximize yards after contact was on full display last week.
#6 WR Tyson Philpot
Philpot led the CFL in receiving yards last week, catching 10 of his 11 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown. He did have a fumble that led to a turnover last week, but he was still a major positive for his team.
Montreal has a great cast of starting receivers and can see a big game from any of Austin Mack, Tyler Snead, Charleston Rambo, or ColeSpieker.
#97 DE Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund
Adeyemi-Berglund had 4 tackles last week, including a sack and 2 forced fumbles. He had 3 additional pressures by my count.
#53 DT Kori Roberson
Roberson had 3 tackles, including a solo run stop, and was in on 3 shared run stops. If Mustafa Johnson (listed as doubtful) is unable to go in this game, look to him to again be heavily relied upon.
#1 LB Darnell Sankey
Sankey had a bit of a quieter day last week, with only a tackle on the stats sheet, but did go up and get the game-sealing interception. The Als will need their talented linebackers, including Tyrice Beverette and Najee Murray, to have another strong game.
Tiger-Cats to Watch
#89 WR Kenny Lawler
Lawler is truly one of the best WRs in the league and finished 2nd in receiving this past season after catching 86 passes for 1,443 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns.
#85 WR Kiondre Smith
Smith was 6th in receiving this season, catching 86 passes for 1,126 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tim White was 9th in the league in receiving yards after catching 84 passes for 1,016 yards and 7 touchdowns.
#95 Julian Howsare
Howsare was second in the league in sacks this season after recording 43 tackles and 13 sacks. He also had an interception, 2 forced fumbles, and a touchdown.
#46 Philip Ossai
Ossai had an impressive 8 sacks over 12 games in his first CFL season, which was tied for 5th in the league in sacks. He will play in his first CFL playoff game this weekend.
#30 S Stavros Katsantonis
Katsantonis was tied for first in interceptions with 6 and led the team in tackles with 69.
#2 CB Jamal Peters
Peters was also tied for first in interceptions after having 50 tackles and 6 interceptions.
#1 SLB Reggie Stubblefield
Stubblefield will play in his first CFL playoff game since winning the Grey Cup with Montreal in 2023, and it will be against his old team. He led Montreal in tackles with 23 over the 2023 postseason, including a sack past a lineman in the Grey Cup, and had an interception. By my count, he had 2 solo run stops, 2 assisted run stops, 5 stops against the pass, and 4 passes defended over that run.
His 2023 performance earned him being named on PFF’s All-CFL team and a workout from the Minnesota Vikings.
This past season, he had 56 tackles, 3 sacks, and an interception.
Injury Report:
Depth Charts:
Score Prediction:
Despite how hot Montreal’s offense and defense are, I am predicting Hamilton to emerge victorious at home. Davis Alexander isn’t going to win every game forever, but his comments recently are starting to sound like he thinks that he will. Taking things for granted is a recipe for losing them. Hamilton is a great team with arguably the best CFL quarterback since Anthony Calvillo. I predict Hamilton to win 33-26.