Calgary Stampeders (1-2) Week 5 Preview vs Toronto Argonauts (2-1): Prediction, Depth Chart, Injuries, Odds

Mark Perry
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Calgary Stampeders (1-2) Week 5 Preview vs Toronto Argonauts (2-1): Prediction, Depth Chart, Injuries, Odds
Photo: CFL.ca

Calgary gets its first taste of East Division action Thursday night, and the Stampede Bowl backdrop makes this one a must-win for a Stamps team still searching for its footing.

Game Details

Odds

  • Spread: Calgary Stampeders -1

  • Moneyline: Calgary Stampeders -122, Toronto Argonauts +102

  • Over/Under: 60

Calgary is 1-1-1 against the spread this season with three straight overs. Toronto is 2-1 ATS and has also gone over in all three of their games. With both offences running hot, the 60-point total looks very much in play.

Overview

The second edition of the Stampede Bowl arrives Thursday night, and it carries real stakes on both sides. The Calgary Stampeders (1-2) bounced back in Week 4 with a 41-33 road win over BC, finally getting into the win column after back-to-back early-season losses. It was a complete effort — four sacks from the defence, a pick from the secondary, a 57-yard field goal from Jude McAtamney, and a 90-yard punt return touchdown from Tyreik McAllister that put things out of reach. The Stamps needed that. Now they need to stack wins, and they need to do it in a hurry with the standings looking tight across the board. The Toronto Argonauts (2-1) come in riding a two-game winning streak, including a gritty 40-34 road victory in Regina last week where Chad Kelly carved up the Roughriders and Janarion Grant added a punt return score of his own. Toronto took just three penalties against Saskatchewan — that kind of discipline on the road is a real sign of a team playing with confidence.

The historical edge belongs to Calgary in this matchup. The Stamps are 60-45-1 all-time against Toronto and own a commanding 36-17 record at home. McMahon Stadium is a tough building on a big occasion, and the Stampede Bowl atmosphere — now in its second year — only adds to that. But Toronto has a legitimate offence with Kelly operating at a high level, and the Argos' secondary has been opportunistic all season. This is a coin-flip game on paper, which is exactly what the -1 spread suggests. Calgary gets the slight edge at home, but this one is likely coming down to the fourth quarter.

There's also a compelling subplot here: John Hufnagel returns to McMahon Stadium for the first time since leaving Calgary for Toronto last December. Hufnagel spent 25 years with the Stamps organization, winning four Grey Cups across multiple roles. He now serves as a senior advisor to Argonauts GM Michael "Pinball" Clemons and head coach Mike Miller. Expect a warm reception — and then a football game.

Key Players

  • Vernon Adams Jr. (Calgary, QB) — Adams leads the Stamps with 722 passing yards this season and needs just 11 completions to reach 1,500 for his career; he claimed MVP honours at last year's Stampede Bowl and will be looking for a repeat performance on this stage.

  • Dedrick Mills (Calgary, RB) — The league's second-leading rusher with 273 yards on 45 carries, Mills also scored the first receiving touchdown of his career last week and is one rushing score away from 20 for his career.

  • Tyreik McAllister (Calgary, RB/Returner) — McAllister has now delivered kick-return touchdowns in back-to-back games — a 90-yard punt return against BC follows a missed-field-goal return against Saskatchewan — the first time Calgary has done that since Roy Finch in 2017.

  • Chad Kelly (Toronto, QB) — Kelly tops the league leaders among Argonauts with 1,190 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and a connection with his receivers that has Toronto averaging over 38 points per game during their winning streak; it will be 1,042 days since he last faced the Stamps defence when Thursday kicks off.

  • Kevin Mital (Toronto, WR) — Toronto's top receiver with 325 yards on 17 catches, Mital is the safety valve Kelly trusts in critical moments and a matchup problem in the middle of the field.

  • Clarence Hicks (Calgary, DE) — The team's sack leader at three on the season, Hicks lines up as the boundary-side end and will be tasked with getting consistent pressure on Kelly from the edge.

  • Marquel Lee (Calgary, MLB) — Lee leads the Stamps with 19 defensive tackles and anchors a linebacking corps that will need to contain Samuel Hicks and Toronto's ground game before Kelly can get into a rhythm.

Keys to the Game

  • Keep the return game rolling: Back-to-back special teams touchdowns have changed field position and momentum in each of Calgary's last two games — if McAllister can threaten again on Thursday, it flips the script on Toronto's already-thin margin for error.

  • Get after Kelly early: Clarence Hicks and the Calgary front four have to make Kelly uncomfortable in the pocket; Kelly has thrown six interceptions this season and can be pressured into mistakes, but he's also capable of picking defences apart if given time.

  • Run the ball and eat the clock: Dedrick Mills and the Calgary ground game need to control the pace — Toronto's offence is built to score in bunches, and keeping Kelly on the sideline is the best way to limit the damage.

Injury Report

Player

Team

Status

Jaydon Grant (DB)

Calgary

Questionable (Ankle) — DNP Mon, DNP Tue

Reggie Begelton (WR)

Calgary

Out (Knee) — Limited Tue

R.J. Moten (LB)

Calgary

Questionable (Hamstring) — Full Tue

Ashton Miller-Melancon (DB)

Calgary

Questionable (Knee) — DNP Mon, DNP Tue

Eric Rascoe (LB)

Calgary

Out (Back) — DNP Mon, DNP Tue

The secondary depth bears watching. Jaydon Grant and Ashton Miller-Melancon are both questionable after missing practice Monday and Tuesday — with Miller-Melancon listed as a game-time decision on the depth chart. Losing both against a receiver group as capable as Toronto's would be a real problem. Reggie Begelton's absence at receiver also stings; he hasn't played yet and there's still no timetable. On the bright side, Benny Sapp III was activated from the practice roster ahead of this game, providing some depth in the secondary, and Bakyne Coly was brought up to address the offensive line depth after William Barnes shifted to the practice roster.

Depth Chart

Calgary Stampeders projected starters and key backups by position, built from the official Week 5 depth chart.

Position

Calgary Stampeders

QB

Vernon Adams Jr. (starter); Josh Love (backup); Quincy Vaughn (3rd)

RB

Dedrick Mills (starter); Ludovick Choquette (backup); Tyreik McAllister (DA/returner)

WR (X)

Tevin Jones (starter)

WR (Z)

Clark Barnes (starter)

SB

Jalen Philpot (starter); Dejon Brissett (backup)

SB

Erik Brooks (starter); Jesulayomi Ojutalayo (backup)

LT

D'Antne Demery

LG

Zack Williams

C

Chris Fortin; Bryce Bell (backup)

RG

Christy Nkanu

RT

Bakyne Coly (starter); Benny Sapp III (listed IN)

DE (Boundary)

Clarence Hicks (starter); Kelon Thomas (backup); George Idoko (3rd)

DT

Miles Brown (starter)

DT

Charles Wiley (DA, starter); Jaylon Hutchings (backup)

DE (Field)

Folarin Orimolade (starter); Shaun Peterson Jr. (backup)

MLB

Micah Teitz (starter); Marquel Lee (backup)

WLB

Kelechi Anyalebechi (DA, starter); Kyle Wilson (backup)

SAM

Derrick Moncrief (starter)

CB (Boundary)

Anthony Johnson (starter)

HB (Boundary)

Zy Alexander (starter); Jackson Sombach (backup)

S

Ashton Miller-Melancon (GTD); Damon Webb (backup)

HB (Field)

Anton Haie (starter); Benny Sapp III (backup)

CB (Field)

Ben Labrosse (starter); Dolani Robinson (backup)

K

Jude McAtamney

P

Mark Vassett

LS

Jason MacGougan

Score Prediction

Toronto Argonauts 32 - Calgary Stampeders 29.

CFL Standings | Full Schedule | League Leaders

Who takes this one? Drop your prediction in the comments.

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