The 7-7 Winnipeg Blue Bombers will be hosting Toronto, who is 8-6, on Friday night. This will be a big game for Winnipeg as they could still finish anywhere from 1st to 5th in the West (though 1st would be a bit of a stretch).
More realistically Winnipeg is going to land anywhere from second to fifth. While spots 1, 2, 3 are guaranteed a playoff game, there is a strong likelihood of a West team crossing over to the East. I am sure that if you asked the Bombers they would rather finish in 2nd place and host a home playoff game.
And while looking at the East standings, this is not a meaningless game for Toronto either. While catching up to Montreal is a long shot (being 3 game back of Montreal with only 4 games remaining) it is not an impossibility for Toronto to catch Montreal.
Bombers Depth Chart
Despite the Bombers signing some players this week, more on that in a future article, the Bomber only have one change to the roster...and whether or not it is significant is debatable right now. Those who insist that Zach Collaros gives the Bombers the best chance to win will insist that this one change has huge ramifications. As I am sure you have heard by now, Zach Collaros has been placed on the 6 game injured list for the second time this season (they still could pull him off early and he could play this season). That means that Dru Brown will be starting for the Bombers on Friday.
The Quarterback's Numbers
The numbers between Dru Brown and Zach Collaros are not that much different when you account for games played. And if you want to dive deeper into the metrics there is this from Chris 🇨🇦🏈 Stats Junkie on Blue Sky Social https://bsky.app/profile/statsjunkie.bsky.social/post/3mw4m7oinas2a
Are there some noticeable differences? Sure. For example, the 'points' looks like a huge disparity...until you do the math. Brown has had about 60% of the drives that Collaros has. So when you take 60% of Collaros' 203 points, you end up with 121.8 yards (that is what Brown would have to have to be on pace with Collaros). So 110 points for Brown is not that far off the mark. In August I wrote the following, If Zach Is Back Does It Matter? Only Slightly And I Will Tell You Why!
In fact, we should not be surprised by this. The Bombers brought in Brown for this very reason. When the Bombers signed Brown I wrote the following: Truth Bombs – Winnipeg Cashes In On Ottawa’s Mismanagement.
What I do expect is more of a run game from Winnipeg, which they should have been doing all year. And had they ran the ball 2 weeks ago Zach would not have been injured. After the Banjo Bowl I wrote the following, "I am literally yelling, "Run the ball, run the ball." Clearly the Bombers did not hear me, and even if they would they is no reason that they would have listened to me. But what happened next was a microcosm of the season. Collaros throws a terrible interception (taking points off the board for the Bombers) and the Roughrider player probably would have scored a touchdown is Zach Collaros did not push him out of bounds.
So crisis averted, right? Wrong. Sure Collaors made the touchdown-saving force out of bounds but that would lead towards Collaros getting injured and coming out of the game. (Some speculate that it could be a shoulder injury, others think maybe he was taken out by concussion protocol). And I have no issue speculating (that is what everyone that writes about or talks about sports does). So I think it is most likely that it was a head or a neck issue."
Bombers Beware
Sack Attack
Toronto does a few things that the Bombers are going to need to account for. One of those is getting to opposition quarterbacks. Whatever you think of him, and whether he should have been reinstated, Shawn Lemon is a force for Toronto. Having played 8 games this season he already has 8 sacks. Winnipeg is not great at protecting their quarterbacks...they are terrible at it. if Winnipeg does not sort that out, not only could Lemon feast but we could see another Bomber quarterback go down.
Arial Assault
Toronto airs the ball out probably more than any other CFL team. That is why Toronto's quarterback, Chad Kelly, leads the league with 31 passing touchdowns. Compare that to Colloros and Brown, well they have a combined 16 passing touchdowns. Before we want to try and make the case that, 'Yah, but Winnipeg has far more rushing touchdowns because Toronto does not run the ball,' we should check the numbers.
Winnipeg: Bryce Perkins, Winnipeg's short yardage quarterback has 6 touchdowns. Brady Oliveira, has 5 rushing touchdowns.
Toronto: Samuel Hicks has 3 touchdowns. Isiah Smith has 1, and Chad Kelly has 3 touchdowns off his own.
So the argument does not hold up that while Toronto puts up more passing touchdowns that Winnipeg makes up for that in rushing touchdowns.
They Don't Run
While it may seem like this point has been addressed, the reality is that Toronto does not run the ball. Like not at all! For the Bombers they are going to need to play a very heavy pass defence.
For me, I believe that the Bombers pass rushing will be so integral to a win that I spent half of a previous article on that point.
"Toronto seems to be willing to live with Kelly throwing a ton of long balls, even if it ends up in a bunch of interceptions. They just believe that they are on the right side of risk vs reward on that.
And to be fair, Kelly does lead the league with 4,777 yards of passes. He also leads the league with 31 TD passes. Oh, yah. Another area he leads the league is interceptions with 22. But here is the upside, it only took Kelly 2 passes against Edmonton this weekend to score a touchdown! A 56 yard strike to Kahmann, and then a 14 yard pass to Mital.
This is highly problematic for the Bombers. Even if the Bombers recognize that this is not just a pass first team, but a pass only team, Winnipeg has been susceptible to allowing the long ball against them all season.
However, that did change in the Banjo Bowl where Winnipeg's defense was great at defending deep balls. But as I mentioned here, that might have been a different story if Saskatchewan did not waste their challenge so early, "Winnipeg's defence played very well! I think that they benefited from Saskatchewan's head coach, Corey Mace, throwing the challenge flag on the Riders' third offensive play.
As the game went on, Winnipeg's defence would make some great defensive knockdowns (and the timing is always close). But I feel like if Saskatchewan would have saved their challenge they would have been able to use it later in the game with a better chance of winning the challenge (possibly on one of Holm's 3 knockdowns).
I could go through the list and name players that played very well on the Bombers' defence, but it was a complete team effort...including Jordan Younger the Bombers' defensive coordinator. He had the right mix of blitzes, pressures, and coverages, which would keep the Riders quarterback, Harris, to zero touchdowns and only a 53% passing completion rate.
So if Winnipeg does not realize that it is going to be pass after pass all night long, it is going to be a long night.
If I were the Winnipeg Blue Bombers I would bet the farm that Toronto is going to throw the ball, almost exclusively! In fact, I would not even play a run defense. Make Toronto do something that they do not like to do, and that they are not good at...running the ball.
I would challenge Toronto to beat me with runs, whether that is by their running back or by their quarterback - Chad Kelly. The Bombers need to realize that when Kelly rolls out he is not doing it to find a running lane, he is doing it to find a pass downfield. If it were another quarterback I would say that Winnipeg needs to contain their opponent's quarterback. But not in this case. I would not use up any defensive player to contain Kelly.
And I would not alter that plan even if I got beat by Kelly ripping off some big runs. Why? Because I am betting that Toronto and Kelly just cannot do that all game, or well enough to win that way."
As for how Toronto will line up, here it is.
As for Toronto's depth chart, does it really matter who is out? Miller has only played 2 games. Tristan Ready, clearly wasn't...as he has no stats and is back on the practice roster. Jones has played 5 games with a total of 85 yards...which is very low for a team that relies on airmailing the ball. McFadden might be the biggest loss to Toronto. In 14 games this year he has 30 defensive tackles and 3 interceptions.
What will be interesting to see is how Hajrullahu performs as he had been replaced by Haggerty. But after a disgusting, non-football act, Haggery has been suspended for 2 games.
Final Thoughts
This game is going to come to a handful of things for Winnipeg to win.
1) Can they protect their quarterback?
I do not care who is in at quarterback if the Bombers cannot protect him. Sometimes it is not a missed block, it is just that the other team brought more players. If the Bombers cannot block them all they need to let their quarterback know "hot route."
2) Will they run the ball?
No, I am not talking about Toronto...they will not run the ball. But how about Winnipeg? They should run the ball, regardless of the score. But will they? That will be a key factor in the outcome of this game.
3) Pass rush your butt off
Winnipeg needs to go all-in on the pass rush. The Bombers better not outthink themselves on this one. We are 14 games into the season. Bet the farm that Toronto does not start running the ball.
4) Don't be Haggerty, but grab those balls
Chad Kelly is going to throw a lot of balls and throw them into tight windows and bad spots. If Winnipeg can play defence like they did in the Banjo Bowl - knocking down passes, and catching interceptions. Winnipeg has previously left receivers wide open down field. They simply cannot afford to do that this game and must make Kelly pay for badly thrown balls.
What do you think? Let me know in the comments section wherever you are reading this. Catch all my articles here.