The BC Lions will hit the road to take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Regina in the Western Final on Saturday. The Lions are coming off an exciting 30-33 victory over the Calgary Stampeders at home in the Western Semi-Final on a walk off game winning field goal from Sean Whyte. BC avoided turnovers and had critical moments in special teams, such as Robert Carter’s 95-yard kickoff touchdown return.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Saturday, November 8 /Mosaic Stadium, Regina, Saskatchewan
Kickoff Time: 6:30 PM ET, 2:30 PM PT
Channel: TSN, RDS (Canada), CFL+ (USA, Global)
Odds (If you place bets, please do so responsibly in moderation):
Spread: B.C. +3.5 (-110), Saskatchewan -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: B.C. -250, Calgary +202
Over/Under: 54.5 (Over -112, Under -108)
B.C. Lions (11-7): Despite trailing in yards and time of possession, the Lions avoided turnovers and had key moments in special teams to propel them past Calgary. The offense was efficient, avoiding mistakes, and the defense generated 4 sacks in the win. Rourke completed 16 of his 22 passes for 223 yards without any turnover-worthy throws.
BC has now played in 4 straight West Semi-Finals and has emerged victorious in 3. However ,the last 3 times they found themselves in the West Final, they fell to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. This yea,r they will look to get past Saskatchewan on the road to make it to their first Grey Cup since 201,1 which they won over Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6): The Roughriders will play in front of a packed house with 30,000 tickets sold 2 days ago and a possible sellout. At 12-6, the Riders have had the best record in the CFL. Trevor Harris had the highest completion percentage among starters this season, completing 73.6% of his passes for 4,549 yards and 24 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, the Green and White had the lowest points allowed per game at 22.7 and the 2nd lowest yards allowed per game at 341.5.
The Roughriders have not made it to the Grey Cup since 2013, which saw them win over Calgary. Since that time, they have won 3 Division Semi-Final playoff games and appeared in a Division Final 4 times.
Lions' Keys to the Game
Another Game Without a Turnover Worthy Pass From Rourke
This is a really tough challenge to face the Riders' defense in Mosaic. Rourke had a string of games in a row with at least 1 turnover-worthy pass leading up to the West Semi-Final, but was efficient last week as he completed 16 of his 22 passes for 223 yards. BC might need a 300-yard game out of him this week, but it will also need to be one without turnover-worthy passes.
More Run Game This Week
James Butler was listed as a game-time decision last week and as questionable this week. Last week saw Butler rush 7 times for 25 yards and Zande Horvath rush 2 times for 3 yards. If Butler is too banged up to carry the football often, then give the rock frequently to Horvath, who had 231 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on just 24 carries in the regular season. If BC doesn’t have a plan to get more than 28 rushing yards from their running backs on the road against this Riders defense, then they may as well clear out their lockers right now.
It’s not easy to run against Saskatchewan, who have the lowest rush yards allowed per game at 76 and the lowest per rush at 4.6, but you don’t often beat good teams being one-dimensional.
Pass Rush Needs to Be On Fire, Exceptional Run Stopping
BC’s defensive line frankly has a good mix of NFL-caliber players. Mathieu Betts led the CFL once again in sacks this season after having 42 tackles and 15 sacks. Midseason joiners, defensive ends Levi Bell and Bradlee Anae, were exceptional talents in the UFL. Jonah Tavai was named to Pro Football Focus’ All-CFL Team.
DTs Tibo Debaillie and Dewayne Hendrix are both very talented as well. Debaillie is a highly reliable run stopper. Canadian defensive end rookie Hayden Harris was drafted 11th overall by the Lions this past draft and got a look from the Buffalo Bills.
The pass rush needs to be on fire and get to Trevor Harris often. Saskatchewan’s run game cannot be allowed to get rolling.
Of course, there needs to be another strong game from BC’s linebackers of Josh Woods, Micah Awe, and Deontai Williams.
Bend But Don’t Break Pass Coverage
BC’s secondary cannot allow big plays against Saskatchewan. Need great coverage from everyone. CBs Garry Peters and Rober Carter Jr., HBS T.J. Lee and Ronald Kent Jr., S Jackson Findlay is a good starting group. They need to be at their best in this game.
Protect Nathan Rourke
RT Dejon Allen is out again in this contest for the second straight week. Nathan Rourke has shown himself capable of playing under pressure, but BC is gonna need a big game to keep him protected against Saskatchewan. The Riders have 2 defensive tackles named to PFF’s All CFL Second Team in Caleb Sanders and Mike Rose, and defensive end Malik Carney was named to their first team.
This is a heavyweight fight on offense and defense in the trenches.
5 Lions to Watch
#4 WR Keon Hatcher
Hatcher had 4 catches for 51 yards last week. He led the league in receiving this season with 102 receptions for 1,688 yards and 9 touchdowns this season.
#18 WR Justin McInnis
McInnis finished in third in receiving yards this season after catching 76 passes for 1,256 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. He had the most receiving yards for BC last week, catching 4 passes for 84 yards.
#26 CB Robert Carter
Carter had 2 tackles last week, and only 1 target came his way completed for 13 yards. He returned a kickoff for a 95-yard touchdown in one of the pivotal plays of the game last week. HB Ronald Kent Jr. also had a good game in coverage with 2 targets downfield coming his way, resulting in only 1 completion for 8 yards.
#99 DT Jonah Tavai
Tavai had 4 tackles last week, including a sack, and was in on 2 shared run stops. He had 5 additional pressures in the pass rush by my count (2 of which were a secondary source of pressure).
#96 DE Bradlee Anae
Anae had his first CFL postseason sack last week and 2 total tackles. He had 3 additional pressures (2 of which were a secondary source of pressure on the play).
Mathieu Betts also had a sack last week and 6 additional pressures by my count (1 as a secondary source of pressure. D Levi Bell had 3 tackles and 4 pressures (2 as a secondary source of pressure) last week.
5 Roughriders to Watch
#45 RB A.J. Ouellette
Ouellette was second in rushing yards this season after rushing 248 times for 1,222 yards (4.9 ypc) and 8 touchdowns. He also caught 35 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown.
#3 WR KeeSean Johnson
Johnson had a fantastic year in his 2nd CFL season, finishing 4th in receiving after catching 86 passes for 1,159 yards and 4 touchdowns over 16 games. Johnson is listed as questionable due to a knee injury.
#88 WR Dohnte Meyers
Meyers finished 7th in receiving in the league after catching 65 passes for 1,056 yards and 8 touchdowns over 15 games.
#32 LB A.J. Allen
Allen finished 5th in the league in tackles with 87, including 4 sacks. He also had 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. LB Jameer Thurman was not far behind him with the 6th most tackles league wide at 86 and had 3 sacks and 3 interceptions, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.
#11 DE Malik Carney
Carney was tied for 5th in sacks this season with 8 and had 39 total tackles. Micah Johnson and Mike Rose were not far behind him in sacks with 6 each.
Injury Report:
Depth Charts:
Score Prediction:
Both of these teams have great defensive lines, but I feel like BC gets the edge here. Their midseason acquisitions of Bradlee Anae and Levi Bell push them over the edge in my mind. I have a greater level of confidence in Nathan Rourke’s ability to play when pressured than in Trevor Harris (despite Rourke throwing some picks to avoid a sack late in the season). Not that Harris is bad by any means under pressure, Rourke can make pass rushers miss.
I feel this game will be a barn burner and will be won in the trenches. I predict BC to win 30-27.