The BC Lions host the Calgary Stampeders in a crucial divisional match. Should the Lions emerge victorious, they will jump Calgary in the standings. The Lions also hold the tie-breaker over Calgary, having recently defeated them 52-23 in week 16.
Game Details:
Date/Location: Saturday, October 4 /BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Kickoff Time: 7:00 PM ET, 4:00 PM PT
Channel: TSN (Canada), CFL+ (USA, Global)
Odds:
Spread: B.C. -3.5 (-122), Calgary +3.5 (-106)
Moneyline: B.C. -200, Calgary +164
Over/Under: 55.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
B.C. Lions (8-7): The BC Lions have won their last 3 games, with the most recent being 27-22 over Toronto at home last week. Currently, they sit in 4th place in the west, led by Saskatchewan with an 11-4 record. It’s an extremely tight race with 3 teams in the West Division having 8 wins. Winnipeg holds the tiebreaker over BC, having won the season series. Edmonton is 5th in the West but still alive with a 6-9 record. With third place in the East, Toronto, holding a 5-10 record, it is extremely likely that the 4th place team in the West will crossover to the East Division in the playoffs.
Calgary Stampeders (8-6): While the Lions are riding a 3-game winning streak, the Stampeders are looking to end a 3-game losing streak. All 3 of the losses have been by at least 2 scores, having lost to Edmonton 10-31 in week 14, 23-52 to BC in week 16, and 20-38 to Montreal in week 17. Calgary has gone from being in a position to win the West to being at risk of not having a home playoff game.
Lions' Keys to the W
Pressure Vernon Adams Effectively
Vernon Adams Jr. has proven to play at a high level under pressure. This was on full display at the start of the 2024 season, playing for the BC Lions, when he had one of the most impressive stretches of play I have seen from a quarterback at any level. Over that span, he amassed 2,395 yards and 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions despite being in games in which he was frequently pressured.
The Lions need to pressure him effectively and ensure he can not slide in the pocket or escape. They will need some sacks and QB hits. BC is currently tied for 2nd as a team in sacks at 35.
The Lions' defensive line has had some upgrades through the season with additions of defensive ends Levi Bell and Bradlee Anae, who were both UFL standouts in the past. Canadian defensive end Hayden Harris will make his CFL debut after signing with the club earlier this week. Harris was an 11th overall pick by the Lions this past CFL draft.
Slow Dedrick Mills Down
The Lions have a tall task in stopping the run of the Calgary Stampeders, led by Dedrick Mils, who has 1,035 yards on the season on 195 rushes (5.3 average).
It is good timing to have defensive tackles Tibo Debaillie and Dewayne Hendrix back in the lineup. Hendrix returns after missing 1 game. Debaillie last played in week 15 and has only been in 6 games this season due to injuries.
Pound the Rock
James Butler is 2nd in the league in rushing yards this season with 1,061 yards on 191 carries (5.6 average) and 10 touchdowns. Calgary is last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 112.6 and also tied for last in rushing yards per attempt at 5.6. We have seen some really strong play over the last couple of weeks from Lions’ RB Zander Horvath, who has rushed 16 times for 177 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games.
This is a good day to play smash mouth football.
5 Lions to Watch
#96 DE Bradlee Anae
Bradlee Anae has 4 tackles and 2 sacks over his first 2 CFL games. By my count, last week he also had 5 additional pressures. He was one of the most effective pass rushers in the UFL for the Birmingham Stallions this past season.
For how I counted pressures in UFL games, over 8 games, he had 56 pressures in scenarios against a blocker in addition to his 4 sacks. This was the 2nd highest among UFL players by my count in that metric.
#90 DE Mathiue Betts
Betts had a hat trick of sacks last week and had 8 additional pressures by my count against Toronto. He had 5 tackles in the game, including 2 run stops. He has 13 sacks on the season, making him first in the league.
#4 WR Keon Hatcher
Hatcher had the most yards last week, catching 4 of his 6 targets for 87 yards. Justin McInnis was also targeted 6 times and had 4 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown.
#1 CB Garry Peters
Peters had a lockdown day last week, seeing only 2 targets come his way, resulting in 1 catch for 7 yards.
#21 Ronald Kent Jr.
Kent Jr. also had a strong day in coverage, allowing only 1 catch for 14 yards on his 2 targets.
5 Stampers to Watch
#67 LG Zack Williams
Last week, I did not attribute a single pressure to Williams in the loss to Montreal.
#0 CB Adrian Greene
Last week, by my tracking, Greene had the most downfield targets come his way against Montreal, allowing 3 receptions for 28 total yards.
#31 Kyle Wilson
Wilson led Calgary in tackles last week at 7, including 2 run stops.
#96 DT Jaylon Hutchings
Hutchings has 35 tackles on the season and is tied for first in sacks with DE Clarence Hicks at 7.
#85 Jaylon Philpot
Last week, Philpot was the most targeted receiver for Calgary, catching 7 of his 10 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. Notably, Dominique Rhymes had 5 catches on 7 targets for 83 yards last week.
Injury Report:
Depth Charts:
With Jarrell Broxton out, Kory Woodruff will move to left tackle.
Score Prediction:
I am predicting the BC Lions to win 34-27 with the Lions’ defensive line being the x-factor in this match. However, if there is a quarterback to pull a rabbit out of his hat and steal a win in the face of immense pressure, it is Vernon Adams Jr.