The Ottawa Redblacks still have an undefeated record at home heading into week 14 of the CFL season. Due to this success at home, Ottawa stands 7-3-1 after their week 13 loss in BC. Holding just a 2-3 record on the road, and having played 6 of their 9 home games can Ottawa find a way to win on the road the rest of the season?
Luckily Ottawa won’t have to answer that question until week 15 as they play host to Toronto in week 14. With a 5-0-1 record at home could the Redblacks walk out of this game with their 8th win of the season, and none of those have come against Toronto yet this season. The Argos just got their QB1 back and could start to see a swing in their offensive output as this will be his third start after returning from suspension.
Route to Victory will Require Some Road-Grading
The best way to beat Chad Kelly and the Argonauts offense is to keep them off the field. That means Ottawa’s run game which has seen quite a bit of turnover this season will have to carry the load. That could prove to be a challenge after inexplicably Ryquell Armstead was released by Ottawa following the loss to BC. Late in the game as the Redblacks were down 38-12 we saw Fullback Anthony Gosselin take more carries in this one game than he has his entire career up to this point.
This was ultimately a sign of things to come as they moved away from the man they call “Rock” after he compiled 160 touches for 907 yards through essentially 10 1/2 games given that he was ejected just before halftime in week 8. I have to wonder if his usage in week 13 during a losing affair created some tension in the locker room.
Regardless of why it happened this creates a tough situation due to the lack of overall depth at the position for the Redblacks. For most of the season, they have opted to carry no depth behind Armstead. Instead using wide receivers like Bralon Addison, Devonte Dedmon, and Justin Hardy to supplement the run game. I anticipate they continue this trend but with Addison, Kalil Pimpleton, and Jaelon Acklin all moved to the 6 game injury list, I was initially expecting that we would see recent free agent addition Rasheed Bailey get the call-up to fill this role for his first game action with Ottawa against the team that cut him little more than a month ago. However, this did not come to fruition.
I am not surprised to see the Redblacks decide to carry two running backs into this game on the active roster. After signing Jamal Morrow who rushed for over 900 yards in Saskatchewan last season this week, and bringing in Khalan Laborn earlier this season. It will be interesting to see how Ottawa deploys these three players over the next few weeks.
I would be lying if I said I didn’t expect some struggles in this department this week. Toronto has allowed the second least rushing yards per game, and overall currently has allowed the least total rushing yards in the league. They have also seen the lowest amount of rushing attempts in the league with only 183 in 11 games so far. Every other team has seen 190 or more. This is not as black and white as it appears because Toronto has also allowed teams to move the ball down the field allowing the third most first downs per game. They have also allowed the fourth most points per game this season. The Argos are not unbeatable on defense this season.
Redblacks Must Pressure Kelly
If Ottawa allows Chad Kelly to stand tall in the pocket and doesn’t find a way to pressure him early and often, I am afraid this Ottawa secondary could be in for a long day. “Swag” Kelly is a wizard when it comes to improvising and creating plays when it would appear most CFL quarterbacks could not given the same situation. This is part of what helped his team set records last season.
However, if you rush him through his progressions he will at times throw errant passes. Montreal proved this in the Eastern Final last season when they logged just 1 sack, but 4 interceptions and multiple batted passes. This was likely the worst performance of Kelly’s short career as a CFL starter to this point. He finished 21 of 36 for just 246 yards and 1 touchdown.
For all his confidence and swagger, Kelly is much like Toronto as a team in 2024, not without flaws. Barron Miles needs to dial up zone blitzes early and often and get creative with how he does it. Don’t be scared to send a defensive back and drop guys like Pickett, or Davion Taylor back into coverage. The Redblacks have the right personnel to match up with Toronto but it’s up to Coach Miles to be the difference in this game. Through 11 games Ottawa has produced 21 sacks, with their defensive line they should be able to produce more pressure than that regularly.
Force Turnovers
This is a byproduct of producing pressure on the opposing quarterback but in two games with Chad Kelly back, Toronto has turned the ball over 5 times, including 2 interceptions. In 3 of 4 regular season games Chad Kelly has lost as a starter in the CFL, his team has lost or been even in the turnover battle. Ottawa must follow this formula to find a win this weekend.
Last week against Hamilton, Kelly threw an interception with Hamilton not giving the ball away. Last season against Calgary, Toronto turned the ball over 3 times to Calgary’s 2. Against Winnipeg, both teams had 2 giveaways. Against Montreal in 2022 is the only time he has lost a game while also winning the turnover battle. In that game, Toronto had 2 giveaways, and Montreal had 3.
Ottawa is currently -5 in the turnover battle. Leading the league in fumbles lost with 10 while being tied for the lowest number of interceptions thrown as a team with only 7. This is not a sustainable way of winning games, and this needs to be corrected this week if they don’t want to lose their first home game in 2024.
According to BetUS.com, the Redblacks are currently 1-point underdogs at home in this game despite their 5-0-1 record at TD Place. Toronto did see the return of Chad Kelly two weeks ago, but so far he has not looked like the MOP player we saw last year, granted I expect a return to this level of play as early as this week. I still have Ottawa continuing their nearly unblemished record at home in this game.
I am taking Ottawa 21-17 over Toronto in this game. With a lack of depth in their passing game the Redblacks will need to lean on the run game and short to intermediate passing game in this one, without completely abandoning the deep ball. I expect this game to be a low-scoring affair with Ottawa giving Toronto all they can handle in the run game with a few key big plays to rebound after their beatdown last week.
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