The Redblacks were dismantled in week 15 by a surprisingly scrappy Hamilton team that stepped up in a big way against Ottawa. This win kept Hamilton’s slim playoff hopes alive and prevented Ottawa from being the second team to clinch a playoff berth in 2024.

Having just lost to the worst team in the East, the Redblacks now are tasked with facing the best team. With the 10-2-1 Alouettes coming to town, Ottawa has a chance to make a statement but are they healthy enough to do so?

Ottawa Looks to Continue Unbeaten Record at Home

The Redblacks are 6-0-1 at home through 15 weeks, but can they continue this streak through week 16? It is no secret that Ottawa could have already surpassed Montreal without their struggles on the road. Despite their unblemished record at home, they are just 2-4 on the road in 2024. This includes a blow-out 47-21 loss to Montreal early in the season.

To make matters even more grim on paper, Ottawa is just 2-2 against East Division opponents, and they just lost Ardarius Pickett to an Achilles injury that could affect his long-term mobility, perhaps even ending his time as a hybrid defender.

This could be a huge blow to the team in more ways than one with Pickett the vocal leader for Ottawa. He also would have been a welcomed defender for the upcoming matchup with Montreal. Even with Tyson Philpot, and Austin Mack likely to miss this game the Als have a formidable offense featuring one of the top pass-catching running backs in the league. They can also lean on guys like Kaion Julien-Grant, Charleston Rambo, Reggie White Jr., and Tyler Snead.

Injury Attrition and Depth Chart Changes

This is not a question of whether Ottawa can match up when healthy, however, they will be missing Money Hunter, Tobias Harris, Ardarius Pickett, Frankie Griffin, Jovan Santos-Knox, and Bryce Carter.  

With all these injuries, as well as several others at running back, wide receiver, and offensive line, the Redblacks have once again been forced to play many younger players. Ottawa went from Frankie Griffin, Jovan Santos-Knox, and Ardarius Pickett as linebackers to Davion Taylor, Tyron Vrede, and Bennett Williams. They will also be leaning on a backup at defensive end in Kene Onyeka.  

On offense, they are missing Bralon Addison, Kalil Pimpleton, Devonte Dedmon, Jamal Morrow, Zach Pelehos, and Dino Boyd. Playing Montreal at this particular time is a rough break, but it is also a crucial game for Ottawa to prove they can compete with the best teams in the league before they make their way to the playoffs.

The one piece of good injury news that the Redblacks can hang their hat on, is the fact that Montreal may be the only team in the league that has been hit as hard by injuries. Missing Reggie Stubblefield, Caleb Evans, Tyson Philpot, Brock Gowanlock, David Cote, Cre’Von LeBlanc, Austin Mack, Tysen-Otis Copeland, Kristian Matte, Regis Cibasu, Marc-Antoine Dequoy, and Jamar McGloster.

Montreal however, seemingly can always pull a few rabbits out of the hat when needed the most, and they have done just that this week by bringing in three-time USFL/UFL champion Lorenzo Burns, and re-signing former first-round pick Lwal Uguak who spent some time in the NFL. Just a few weeks ago it was the move to re-sign Austin Mack that made waves. Something tells me they aren’t done yet with these sorts of tricks.

Mistake Free Football

If Ottawa intends to win this game they must play mistake-free football. Montreal has the third-highest point output, and second-least points allowed. They have outscored opponents by 63 points so far this season. They have allowed the least yards per play, and offensive touchdowns as well.

Meanwhile, opponents have outscored Ottawa. Forcing 335 points but allowing 347 points. Ottawa has allowed 32 offensive touchdowns on the year, but the 3rd least yards per play. They have also allowed the second-fewest average first downs per game. They have just the 3rd fewest penalties per game in the league. That is not to say Montreal is unbeatable.

Running Game Has Never Been More Important

The Alouettes have allowed teams to move the ball between the 20s fairly easily all season. They have allowed the second-highest completion rate for opposing quarterbacks while allowing the second-most yards per carry on the ground. What has made them so good is their ability to limit big plays.

They are the only team in the league to have allowed single-digit completions of 30 yards or more in the league. They have allowed 6, while second place has allowed 14. They have developed a defensive scheme that keeps the play in front of them and allows them to rally and make a tackle quickly. The more condensed the area on the field, the better they become.

Ottawa needs to lean into those factors of this defense. Run the ball early and often. Use play action to your advantage when available as well. This is how you will be able to force one or two big plays that could change the entire tide of the game.

Last week Calgary tied with Montreal after a 14 carry 115 yard 1 touchdown performance on the ground. Ottawa needs to be prepared to force Montreal’s defense to crowd the line of scrimmage, and this formula may need to include a dedication to the run game even if it isn’t initially working. I expect we will see a lot of Khalan Laborn and Dustin Crum in this game. They combined for 14 carries and 85 yards last week can they do even more damage against this defense?

Banged Up Offensive Line Conducive to A Run Heavy Approach

Right now the Redblacks have some form of doubt about the availability of multiple starting offensive linemen. Dino Boyd and Zach Pelehos are both out for this game. Drake Centers starts at left tackle and Jacob Ruby steps in at right tackle with Dontae Bull back just in time to serve as the swing tackle this week.

It may seem counterintuitive but I believe the best possible approach is to lean heavily on the run and even potentially bring in Dontae Bull as an extra lineman or utilize the fullbacks more often to aid the less experienced starters on the line. With Anthony Gosselin and Marco Dubois both active for this game, I would not be surprised to see either or both used throughout this game.

Gosselin in particular has already gotten more touches this season than any other year in his career. With 6 targets, and 5 receptions both career highs, he has produced 22 yards through the air, and 3 carries for 9 yards which are also career highs. He may not be the most explosive player on the field, but they do not need him to be, his most important role will be lead blocking for Laborn in this game, and perhaps converting one or two short-yardage situations.

Start Fast but Don’t Force Passes

The Redblacks have already attempted 465 passes, completing 317 so far this season. They have collected the second most passing yards in the league, 3,822 yards, just 127 yards more than Montreal. Ottawa is middle of the pack when it comes to 30+ yard completions having compiled 16 such plays. In this game though, the key is not the big play.

As mentioned before Montreal has allowed teams to move the ball well this season, stiffening up near the red zone. Montreal is at its best when playing from a lead this season.

In 7 games this year Montreal has scored the first touchdown of the game, while they did not manage this in their loss to Toronto in week 4, their win 20-16 win against Saskatchewan in week 6, their 21-17 win over Edmonton in week 12, their 37-23 loss to BC in week 13, and their 19-19 tie with Calgary in week 14. This is a team built to play with a lead, allowing their pass rushers to pin their ears back, and their defensive backs and linebackers to play aggressively.

IF and that’s a big if the Ottawa offense can start fast, it could swing the chances of winning dramatically in Ottawa’s favor.

Betting Odds and Predictions

In this game so far, Ottawa is a 3-point underdog. This seems like a generous spread based heavily on Ottawa’s success at home so far this season, and the role the crowd has played in that success. The Redblacks fans will be there in force. This game is at 11:00 am Eastern Time,

This has swung the betting odds in Ottawa’s favor so far, but I would expect a late push by the realists in the world understanding this will still be a tough game for Ottawa. Montreal is one of the best teams in the league when it comes to playing complimentary football. The reason they are so good this season is they have been able to win despite their quarterback’s performance, and are not forced to win because of it. This takes the pressure off of their quarterbacks and places the onus on all three phases of the game. Due to this, I see Montreal winning this game, and unfortunately, they will likely do so-handedly.

I see this being a 36-20 game for Montreal. Prove me wrong Ottawa.

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