There is an old adage that says, ‘Hindsight is 20/20.’ But there is one problem with that; it is not! It is actually a confirmation bias, where we only take into account the evidence that would support our conviction and disregard the other evidence.
Suggesting that hindsight is 20/20 suggests that there are no other variables at play. In the case of the Bombers’ last loss, there certainly were. To suggest, Bombers’ Head Coach, Mike O’Shea was wrong to go for it on 3rd and 1 with around a minute left in the 4th quarter is riddled with fallacy.
Some may want to make the argument, ‘Well the Bomber’s defense played good, kick the field goal and trust the defense.’ There are 3 assumptions being made with that argument.
1) You assume, before the event took place that the Bombers’ kicker makes the field goal late in the 4th quarter. Great assumption based on Castillo’s track record, bad assumption based on the overtime miss.
2) You assume that Streveler will not get the first down in the 4th quarter. Bad assumption based on his previous body of work.
3) You assume that if the Bombers kick the field goal in the 4th quarter that the defense holds Toronto from scoring a major. Good assumption based on that game, bad assumption based on the season so far.
If you are going t make any combination of assumptions, it has to be this. Streveler gets the Bombers a first down on that play in the 4th quarter. He was doing it all game (and I would argue that he did it on that play as well, but the spot and subsequent look by Command Centre was brutal!)
The Bombers then hand the ball off to Oliveira, at least twice, who was averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Then, if the Bombers get no first downs, they run down the clock and Castillo kicks an even closer field goal to seal the game away.
That is the most logical set of assumptions one can make.
For those that want to argue that going for it was the completely wrong idea, no matter what, and that the Bombers should have kicked the field goal right away, what would you say if Toronto came back and hit a quick strike down the field to win the game?
The problem is that the old adage ‘Hindsight is 20/20’ just is not correct. But do you know what is correct? However, another old adage is correct, ‘You have to be good to be lucky, and luck to be good.’ Unfortunately, for the Bombers and their fans, they are neither of those right now.
What do you think? Let me know in the comments section wherever you are reading this.