It’s hard to believe we are already in week 8 of the CFL season but it’s true, and the Redblacks are on the verge of winning more games in 2024 than they have for half a decade. Since taking on the Redblacks name, Ottawa has had just two winning seasons in ten years. 

Despite this fact, Ottawa made the playoffs every season from 2015-2018 playing in three Grey Cups winning the big game only once in 2016. Right now the Redblacks sit at 4-2 after back-to-back wins against Edmonton. This is the first time they have won four games this early in the season since their last Grey Cup season. It’s safe to say Redblacks fans everywhere are hoping they can repeat those fortunes, albeit with a win at the end of it all. 

Since Rick Campbell left for BC in 2020, they have been searching for the right formula to find success once again, as they watched their former head turn BC into one of the best teams in the league after just one season. Now it appears they are witnessing their turnaround after just one season under Bob Dyce. 

Can Ottawa Continue this Success Against Calgary? 

Ottawa has an abysmal record against Calgary. Having played Calgary 18 times since 2014 they have won just four times and tied twice. Calgary has won 12 of those matchups. They have outscored Ottawa 558-369 during that stretch. They have topped 40 points four times, and 30 points four times. 

I expect another high-scoring game this week as well. Ottawa is currently the only team with a winning record that has allowed more points than they have scored. Allowing 161 points to just 141 scored, Ottawa has been living on the edge even in victory this season. This breaks down to allowing 27 points per game while scoring on average 23.5 points per game. Granted this is mostly due to the blowout loss against Montreal when they lost 47-21. They have held just a 15-point margin of victory spread across four games. 

What all of this, and their injury-riddled roster adds up to is another close game tonight. 

Friday Night Football

Kicking off at 7:30 pm Eastern time, this game will be available on TSN in Canada and CFL+ internationally allowing fans outside of Canada to watch a great game for free. Ottawa is hosting Calgary which will help their chances of victory in this game. They are looking to win their fourth straight home game against the Stampeders. 

Keys to Victory

This game will be won or lost by Ottawa’s secondary. Calgary has produced 1,583 passing yards or 263.8 yards per game, while Ottawa has allowed 268.3 yards per game. Ironically that is the third lowest per game so far. 

The problem now is the Redblacks have several members of the secondary out for this game. Playing 3 games over 12 days decimated the backend of their defense. That will be something to keep an eye on in this game. Ironically Calgary is 1-2 in games Maier has topped 300 yards passing. Perhaps the Redblacks can still find victory in this game even with the injury issues. 

Calgary is third in rushing yards per game and tied with Ottawa for second in yards per carry with 5. If Ottawa can slow down their run game they may be the way of preventing chunk plays in the passing game by eliminating their ability to use play action. 

Next Man Up 

With a list of players missing this game due to injury, Ottawa will be forced to look to their depth to win this Game. 

As you can see Ottawa has eight players ruled out for this game. This includes five defensive backs and one linebacker. The bright side is Davion Taylor has continued to play well as a weak-side linebacker. Also of the five players hurt, two have just begun practicing and just aren’t ready to go yet, so Ottawa has been without them all year. Due to this Bennett Williams will get the start at halfback. Adrian Frye and Ty Cranston will be the primary depth in the secondary. It would surprise me if we don’t see Picket in coverage more this week as well. I believe Ottawa can still find a win in this game even with the injury concerns, they just need to avoid costly mistakes.

Mistake Free Football is the Only Path to Victory

Ottawa has been able to overcome mistakes on their way to victory in four games so far. Those opponents are a combined 3-16 at this point in the season and did plenty of self-inflicted damage in each game against Ottawa allowing them to overcome mistakes along the way. Whether it was costly penalties, turnovers, or missed field goals it didn’t stop them from collecting those four wins. 

It might very well be the reason they lose if they don’t clean some of this up against Calgary. Ottawa has yet to play a complete game this season, and if they don’t this week they could slide into the bye week 4-3. While Ottawa is one of the least penalized teams in the CFL, they also have the worst turnover ratio in the league at -6. 

The scariest stat for the Redblacks is the lowest Redzone touchdown rate in the league. With 17 trips to the Redzone, they have scored just 7 touchdowns a 41% conversion rate. They are fourth in field goal percentage but tied for last in points after attempts as well. 

Calgary on the other hand has yet to miss a field goal and has a 92.9% conversion rate on extra points. They have just 1 more penalty than Ottawa and have one of the highest Redzone conversion rates with 13 touchdowns on 20 trips. They are also even in the turnover ratio now. If Ottawa can’t match their pace this could get ugly. 

Betting Odds, and Predictions

According to my sponsor BetUs, the Stampeders are 1-point favorites on the road in Ottawa this week. With the money line -105 for Ottawa, and -115 for Calgary. The over/under is 51 points. I have Ottawa winning this game 28-26. 

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