If you would have told me just a few weeks ago that the Bombers could have a path for second place, I would have told you that you were dreaming. However, after the Bombers handily beat Hamilton, and this last week BC beat Calgary…that is exactly where the Bombers find themselves, after executing my keys to a win!
The Bombers still sit in fourth place in the West, but there is a path to second place. Yet, none of that would have been possible if the Bombers did not put together an impressive win against Hamilton. Right from the opening kickoff, the Bombers were playing like a focused team! Vaval returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown…and there were no penalties on that play. In fact, that has been the case on all of Vaval’s returns for touchdowns; no penalties.
Far too often in the CFL we see a player ‘take one back to the house,’ only for it to be negated by a penalty. And far too often, that penalty did not impact the play. But the Bombers have been focused in that aspect – which allowed them to earlier beat Toronto, and most recently beat Hamilton. Because of that the Bomber some how, some way, have a path to second place.
Yes, the Bombers are currently in fourth place, but with a win this week (with BC on the bye week) the Bombers will take third or second place. That all depends on How Calgary does. Here is the scenario: the Bombers hold the tie breaker over BC, but not over Calgary. Therefore, if the Bombers end up with the same amount of wins and loses as BC, Winnipeg will have the spot ahead of BC. If Winnipeg ends with the same number of wins and loses as Calgary, Calgary will be ahead of Winnipeg. So, Winnipeg needs one more win than Calgary at the end of the season, and can have the same number of wins as BC, at the end of the season, for Winnipeg to secure second place.
Is it possible?
Yes. It is possible that the Bombers end up in second place.
Winnipeg’s remaining schedule
1) Winnipeg at Edmonton
2) Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
3) Montreal at Winnipeg
Calgary’s remaining schedule
1) Calgary at Hamilton
2) Toronto at Calgary
3) Calgary at Edmonton
BC’s remaining schedule
1) Bye week
2) Edmonton at BC
3) BC at Saskatchewan
Is it probable?
To answer that question we need to look at the standings of the East Division as both Winnipeg and Calgary play an Eastern team.
Can Winnipeg get ahead of Calgary?
Normally, looking at this schedule I would say, “No.” However, Calgary has dropped their last 4 games! They lost to Edmonton 31-19 in Week 14. In Week 15 they had a bye. In Week 16 they still did not have things sorted out and lost to BC with a score of 23-52. In Week 17 Calgary lost to Montreal by a score of 38-20. And most recently, Calgary lost in Week 18 to BC by a score of 24-38.
Therefore, I do think it is possible that Winnipeg could win one more game than Calgary, the rest of the way out…but it would require a monumental collapse by Calgary.
Can Winnipeg get ahead of BC?
As BC already sits 1 game ahead of the Bombers, if BC wins their last 2 games then Winnipeg would need to win their last three games – tying BC in the standings, but having the tie breaker over BC.
I could see BC win their last two games, as they should beat Edmonton, and in all likelihood Saskatchewan would be resting players in their last game of the regular season. Add to the fact that Nathan Rourke has been playing great, as of late, and I do not see a situation where BC loses their last 2 games.
So that leaves the question with Winnipeg; can they win their next 3 games? They can…but I do not think they do.
Season Series Implications
Since, Calgary has the season series over Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan has the season series over BC, Saskatchewan needs to win one more, or BC needs to lose one more, for Saskatchewan to clinch first place. If Saskatchewan does that this week against Toronto they may start resting starters. Saskatchewan’s Head Coach, Corey Mace, has already said that he would consider resting their starting quarterback, Trevor Harris, when they clinch first place. That could mean that by the time the Bombes face Saskatchewan, that the Roughriders sit their starting quarterback…maybe.
But would they do that with two weeks left or just the last week remaining? If Saskatchewan rests players with only 1 week remaining that means that Winnipeg would play Saskatchewan’s starters, while BC would not. I think the Bombers can win as many games as BC does in their last games…but I am still not convinced that Winnipeg can win one more game than BC and Calgary. It just seems improbable that Calgary does not win 2 of their next 3, making Winnipeg win 3 of their next 3. And with Saskatchewan likely sitting their starting quarterback in the last game of the season, it seems unlikely that BC does not win their last two games. Winnipeg just has not shown the consistency this year for me to believe they win out the rest of the regular season. Some have criticized me being too big of a fan of the Bombers…but I always write objectively.
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